For example (1000+ BB – 31.77%) means the player was in the middle of a downswing of at least 1,000 big blinds 31.77 percent of the time. It shows how often the simulated player was stuck in a downswing of at least X big blinds. The first table shows the extent of downswing. Therefore 100 million hands are simulated and all downswings over this simulation are tracked.
The last section of the Variance Calculator sheds some more light on potential downswings. In this example, the simulated player ended up with winnings over 25,000 big blinds after 2.5 million hands but had to deal with a nasty downswing of almost 10,000 big blinds between hand 1.2 million and hand 2 million. While the sample winnings have their scale on the right axis, the downswing tracker has its scale on the left axis.
The red area shows for any given point, how much the sample is currently away from its previous peak, meaning it tracks downswings. You can choose how many hands to simulate by moving the slider.Īpart from showing a single sample, this graph also shows some insightful information about downswings.
This chart simulates a single run over 100 thousand up to 10 million hands with the win rate and standard deviation entered above.